Hispanics get a chance at a 3rd council seat
The Houston City Council approved a new political map for the city on Wednesday that expands the council by two seats and gives Houston's burgeoning Latino population what community leaders see as its best opportunity to capture a third seat in November elections.
Across the nation, Hispanics are growing faster than any other major population group; if not for that growth, Texas would not be getting four new congressional seats and the city council would not be getting two more.
But as lawmakers grapple with the Rubik's Cube of redistricting to reflect that growth, the Hispanic question is paramount: Will the new districts at local, state and national levels reflect the stunning growth of the Hispanic community, and will they motivate traditionally under-performing Hispanic residents to vote?
A recent Pew Hispanic Center analysis of census data and 2010 turnout found that, even though 16.3 percent of the nation's population is Hispanic, only 7 percent of voters were. Just 31.2 percent of eligible Hispanic voters cast ballots in last fall's election, compared with 48.6 percent of whites and 44 percent of African-Americans.
Data from the San Antonio-based William C. Velasquez Institute found a similar pattern across Texas. Compared with whites and African-Americans, a greater share of Hispanics who could have registered in recent years failed to do so. Those who did register stayed home at greater rates than white or black voters in every midterm and presidential election since 1990.
In Houston, where Hispanics comprise 44 percent of the population, Hispanic voters made up 10 percent of the electorate in 2009.
Opportunity is there
The City Council's approval of the new District J, which takes in Gulfton, Sharpstown and other southwest Houston communities, creates a political subdivision where 63 percent of the residents are Hispanics, though only 17 percent of the registered voters have Hispanic surnames.
"It doesn't mean there will one immediately elected, but this is an opportunity for the Latino community to have a good candidate in this district," said Councilman Al Hoang.
Councilman James Rodriguez said a "wanted" email has circulated among Hispanic leaders seeking the right person for the District J job.
Hispanic leaders insist there is a correlation between how a district is drawn and voter participation.
"I think it's sort of a two-step that if you give minority communities an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice, more often than not they're going to be engaged in that process," said Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, the San Antonio Democrat who chairs the Mexican-American Legislative Caucus.
Rodriguez agreed. A new council district perceived as Latino and lacking an incumbent would have a galvanizing effect , he said. "We deserve that because we have the numbers, we've experienced the growth. That's fair. But it's incumbent upon us to recognize those numbers and to get out the vote, to field good candidates, to help them raise money. ... We need to do a better job of engaging our population."
Need top candidates
Campaign consultant Marc Campos recalled the 1992 race that sent U.S. Rep. Gene Green, an Anglo Democrat, to Congress. Green won the Democratic primary when the top Hispanic vote-getter, Ben Reyes, "had a ton of negatives." Campos noted that Hispanic turnout — in the district drawn specifically to increase Hispanic opportunity - was good that year.
"When Latino voters think their vote matters, they'll turn out," Campos said.
University of Houston political scientist and redistricting expert Richard Murray said retired Army Gen. Ricardo Sanchez's to run for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat "reflects some recognition that you've got to have some candidates at the top of the ticket if you're going to really get the Hispanic voting community more engaged."
Social status also comes into play, said Hector de Leon, who has analyzed Hispanic voting trends for more than 15 years.
For example, he said, the highest turnout among registered voters with Hispanic surnames in 2008, at 69 percent, was in State District 130, in heavily Republican northwest Harris County. The lowest turnout among registered Hispanic-surname voters, at 38 percent, was in heavily Democratic State District 143, which covers the Houston Ship Channel.
Rice University political scientist Bob Stein suggested that carving out Hispanic-leaning districts may not be the best way to encourage voter participation. He called it a "great irony" that Hispanics have integrated so successfully in Houston that drawing new districts for Hispanic candidates is difficult.
There will come a day - by 2020 at the latest, the experts say - when the Hispanic demographic will be so pervasive that City Council and the chambers of the Capitol, in both Austin and Washington, will reflect the numbers. Until then, Austin-based redistricting consultant Ed Martin said, there are no guarantees.
"What motivates people to vote," he said, "varies with every election."