GOP Sees Shot at Latino Gains
Former staffers for defeated California candidates Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have an urgent message for fellow Republicans: Their political future depends on Latino voters, and the Obama administration may be providing an opening.
Hector Barajas, who led Latino outreach for Ms. Whitman's gubernatorial race, and Marty Wilson, campaign manager for Ms. Fiorina's Senate bid, view those candidates' unpopularity among Latino voters as a crucial factor in their 2010 losses.
More broadly, they see the losses as warnings for GOP candidates nationwide.
The numbers of Latinos are ballooning in battleground states such as New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado and remaking the U.S. political map, political consultants say, arguing that the Hispanic vote also helped defeat Senate Republican candidates Sharron Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck in Colorado.
An Opening for Republicans?
Mr. Barajas said Republicans who don't consider Latinos in crafting their campaigns may risk "political suicide." But the party has a big challenge, Mr. Wilson said: "[Latino] folks don't like us very much."
A spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee said, the party "is aware of the importance of the Latino vote and it is a constituency we will be actively courting, because we believe our principles of less government, fiscal responsibility and freedom are issues that resonate with Latino voters."
One key target: Hispanic small business owners, who are the fastest growing segment of the small business sector, according to the Labor Department. "It's a coalition that we're going to fight for this next cycle," said Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.
In 2010, 60% of Latino voters supported Democrats in U.S. House races, compared with 38% supporting Republicans, according to exit-poll data reviewed by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, a research organization.
A big reason was immigration. A Pew survey found that 51% of Latinos expressed more confidence in the Democratic Party's immigration agenda than in the GOP's. Only 19% preferred the Republican approach.
The current GOP platform says the party opposes amnesty for illegal residents and believes they shouldn't be given drivers licenses, in-state tuition rates, Social Security or other public benefits except as provided by federal law.
Democrats favor giving workers who are in the U.S. without permission, but in good standing, a shot at citizenship if they "admit they broke the law, pay taxes and a penalty, learn English, and get right with the law," according to the Democratic National Party's website.
However, the record number of deportations under the Obama administration, and his failure so far to kick-start an immigration-law overhaul, have helped lower Hispanic support for the Democratic Party, said Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions LLC, a nonpartisan research firm in Seattle.
That has some Republicans pointing to an opening for their candidates. Mr. Barajas, now a partner at Revolvis Consulting, a political-consulting firm with offices in Washington, Sacramento and San Diego, has advised the GOP to train Spanish-speaking representatives to woo Latino voters by talking about Republican ideas for improving the economy through easing regulations and lowering taxes as well as promoting charter schools, areas where GOP views may be likelier to resonate with Latinos.
Other consultants say many Latinos have conservative views on issues such as gay marriage and abortion that may align more closely with GOP views.
Mr. Wilson, managing partner at Wilson-Miller Communications Inc. in Sacramento, said that if the topic of immigration arises, Republicans should avoid anti-immigration rhetoric meant to stir up the conservative base. "We're on safe ground when we say, 'We have to secure our borders and get a guest-worker program, then work on a pathway for citizenship for people who are already here'—and then quickly pivot off of that and talk about [other] issues important to Latinos," he said.
Political observers say, though, that more immigration-friendly policies, such as giving citizenship to undocumented workers, could alienate the conservative Republican base.
In polls, Latinos heavily favor Democrats' stances not only on immigration, but also on economic policy, health care and education, said Latino Decisions' Mr. Barreto. "There will probably always be a majority support for the Democratic candidate," he said. "The question is going to be, 'How much can the Republicans chip away at?' "
Antonio Gonzalez, president of the nonpartisan Southwest Voter Registration Education Project in San Antonio, Texas, said Republicans could win Latino votes by arguing they can better respond to problems plaguing Latinos, such as home foreclosures and unemployment.
In California, Latinos make up 33% of the population and 18% of likely voters, according to the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank.
Last year, Ms. Whitman asked Mr. Barajas to lead a Latino-outreach effort in her campaign against Democrat Jerry Brown, airing Spanish-language commercials and opening an office in a heavily Latino neighborhood. But claims of mistreatment by her former housekeeper, an undocumented Mexican immigrant, damaged the candidate and Ms. Whitman won 31% of California's Latino vote, compared with 64% for Mr. Brown.