Obama Imperiled in 2012 by Taking Latinos for Granted
Immigration reform undoubtedly must be on the presidential and Democratic agenda in the 112th Congress, given 2010 census results showing that fully one in six Americans is now of Latino origin.
At minimum, Congress must pass and President Obama must sign The DREAM Act to demonstrate to 50 million Latinos that Democrats aren't all savvy, pandering talk, but no action. In late December 2010, the Senate very narrowly defeated the DREAM Act, including five Democrats who voted against the bill.
The DREAM Act is modest reform legislation that grants the ability to apply for permanent residency, for illegal immigrants who were brought by parents to the U.S. as minors, who have graduated from a U.S. high school, and who meet a number of specific strict conditions and tests.
There are two paramount political reasons why President Obama and Democrats must take leadership, now, of immigration reform matters.
Republicans are Wising Up about Immigration Reform
Over the past decade, Republicans have been reliably despicable on immigration matters, and a few conservative members of Congress have invariably spouted offensive, racist blather about Mexicans taking over America. During the scorching 2007 immigration reform debates, innumerable Congressional Republicans pushed mass round-ups and deportations of 12 million undocumented workers... a physically impossible feat.
But in 2011, a few Republican-red bastions are quietly opening their doors to undocumented workers, while others are fighting back against conservative bigotry. Take Utah, for instance, likely the most solidly Republican state in the union. The New York Times reported on March 6, 2011:
"In the first move by a state to extend legal recognition to illegal immigrant laborers, the Utah Legislature has passed immigration bills that include a guest worker program that would allow unauthorized foreigners to work legally in the state."With the immigration package, passed in both chambers of the Republican-controlled Legislature late Friday, Utah made a sharp break with the hard-line trend in state immigration legislation that has been led by Arizona, which passed a strict enforcement law last April."
Even Arizona is having second thoughts about rabid measures against illegal immigrants. Reported the New York Times this week in Arizona Flinches:
"Arizona, the nation's leader in over-the-top immigration laws, has pulled back. Its Republican-controlled Senate rejected five anti-immigration bills in one day last week. It was a startling rebuke to the Senate president, the architect of the state's go-it-alone approach to enforcement..."The reversal has to do with money, of course. The bills were dead once the state's business lobby weighed in against them. Sixty chief executives signed a letter to the Legislature saying the harsh immigration measures were having 'unintended consequences' -- boycotts, lost jobs, canceled contracts...
"The chief executive of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Glenn Hamer, said the reaction to Arizona's extremism had already cost the state $15 million to $150 million in lost tourism revenue."
2012 Battleground States Rest on Latino Vote
Electoral battleground states in 2012 are anticipated to include Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, must-win western states in which Latinos are a sizable portion of the populations (24.4%, 44% and 19.7% respectively in 2006, and far larger in the 2010 census.).
In 2008, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, states that often vote for Republican presidential candidates, all supported Democrat Barack Obama. In each of these states, the Latino vote made the difference in turning the states Democratic blue.
But discontent presently fills the air in Latino political circles, much of it aimed at President Obama and Congressional Democrats. As I explained last December in Latino Voter Discontent Could Cost Obama 2012 Reelection, Latino voter dissatisfaction is increasingly turning toward both parties, not just Republicans, because of legislative foot-dragging in solving the painful, unfair dilemma of undocumented workers who have labored for years at U.S. corporations.
The political stakes for not addressing immigration reform issues couldn't be higher: money and votes. Ignored by Democrats, disenchanted Latino voters could opt to stay home from the polls in 2012.
Or worse, Latinos could choose to vote in 2012 for Republicans, who are starting to steal the mantle of immigration reformers from slow-footed, politically timid Democrats.
One thing was made perfectly clear by the 2010 census results: Latinos as a voting group are substantial and influential, and cannot be ignored.
President Obama and all Democrats are imperiled in 2012 if they continue to take Latino votes for granted, or persist in believing that Latinos will be satisfied with empty political promises.