Inside The Battle Over The Hispanic Vote
In his column today, Josh Kraushaar looks at Democrats' struggles to recruit Hispanic candidates in key battlegrounds. It's latest troubling sign for a party faced with both a golden opportunity and substantial challenges when it comes to wooing Hispanic voters.
The latest Census results showed significant growth in the Hispanic population in states like Texas and Arizona (that are not Democratic-heavy) as well as in battleground states like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Pair that with exit poll data from the last election showing 60 percent of Latino voters supported Democratic House candidates, and the upside for the party is easy to see.
But there is downside. The economy has hit Hispanics particularly hard. That in part, explains Obama's declining approval rating among Hispanics.
It also means there is an opportunity for Republicans to counter with message of their own. While they struggled to do that in many places last cycle, voters did elect three statewide officials in battleground states, all of whom are mentioned as potential vice presidential candidates in 2012.
This cycle, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz is the rising Hispanic Republican star that has excited many conservatives. The Senate candidate spoke candidly with Hotline On Call over the weekend at the Values Voters summit in Washington about the errors Republicans have made when trying to attract Hispanic voters.
"Typically, Republicans make one of two mistakes. One, some candidates condescend and patronize the Hispanic community," Cruz said.
"The second thing some Republicans do is they essentially adopt Democrat-lite; they think they way to reach out to the Hispanic community is to propose a partial welfare state," he continued. "And that is a losing strategy."
Cruz firmly believes the economy and jobs -- and not immigration policy -- is the number one issue for Hispanic voters.
There's something to that. A national Pew Hispanic Center survey conducted from Aug. to Sept. of 2010 showed Hispanic voters ranked education and jobs ahead of immigration in terms in the important issues in last year's congressional races.
Recently, the Obama administration has stepped up its challenges to tough state immigration laws, seen as a development that could galvanize Hispanic voters in 2012, as immigration remains an important issue for Hispanic voters, even if the other concerns the list. Movement on immigration policy is important, especially as many are of the opinion that not much political capital has been spent on the issue the last two year. But if the economy continues to stagnate, it may not be enough.
For Democrats, it's largely a question of message. They'll have to find a way to convince Hispanic voters they are working to advance their interests, both economically and socially. Finding the right balance of focusing on the social policy (immigration and border security) and the economic policy (jobs) is the challenge.
To many Republicans, it's a question of the messenger. Can the party find candidates who will talk about the issues in a way that avoids the pitfalls that Cruz pointed out? Therein lies their challenge.