What it takes to get out the Latino vote
Latino voter turnout has gradually gone on the upswing in the past decade-and-a-half as a result of a gradual increase in their overall population. In the past decade, Latinos have increased their numbers from 35.3 million in 2000 to 50.5 million in 2010. At certain junctures there has been explosive upswings in Latino turnout due to responses to the contemporary political landscape. The movement leading to the formation of Raza Unida Party in Crystal City, TX in 1970 comes to mind. This movement made great strides at the local level but had trouble gaining traction at the state level. The most dramatic example of explosive Latino voter turnout surely occurred in California after Republicans passed Proposition 187 in 1994. This led to an unprecedented increase in Latino voter over the following decade that gradually turned California into a solidly blue state.
Yet Latino voter turnout is to date among the lowest among the various demographic groups. According to a study by the Pew Hispanic Center, among eligible voters the voter turnout rate of Latinos was 31.2%, of Whites 48.6%, and of Blacks 44%. (Only Asians had a lower turnout rate at 31%.) This meager turnout rate was even lower among the voting age population of Latinos as a whole, which includes the whole population over 18 whether an individual is eligible to vote. Only 20% Latinos over 18 actually voted. This is due to the fact that 22.4% of the 50.5 million Latinos are non-citizens and another 34.9% are under 18.
Latino activists have always been concerned with the historically low voter turnout rate among Latinos, but this concern turns into frustration under political climates in which Latinos seem to be the target of extreme Republican politics. Now is certainly one of those moments. The National Conference of State Legislatures reports that a record 1592 pieces of anti-immigration legislation were considered by state legislatures around the country. Latinos feel they are under attack. The most recent manifestation of this is the creation of the Tequila Party, a non-partisan Latino organization created by a former Republican turned Independent as a consequence of the radically anti-immigrant Tea-Party politics that has served as the impetus for all the recent anti-immigrant legislation. The Tequila Party touts itself as the anti-Tea Party movement and intends to increase Latino voter turnout and transform them into reliable voters. How successful this movement will be depends, of course, on how agile and energetic they are in engaging Latino youth and developing a traditional get-out-the-vote machine. Surely it can only be served by a continuance of the anti-immigrant baiting among Republicans, which in itself will bring out Latinos in greater numbers, if we can trust the lesson of California in the late 90s.
These facts beg the question of why Latino voter turnout is low relative to other groups and what it would take to increase voter turnout beyond the traditional strategies of engaging Latino youth and creating a get-out-the-vote machine. Is lower political participation among Latinos due to historic trends common to other demographic groups or specific trends unique to Latinos? A look at the demographic data suggests the following observations:
1. One factor unique to lower Latino turnout seems to be the language barrier, which affects this group disproportionately. The capacity to speak English is surely a factor in whether an individual is going to be a likely voter. A voter is less likely to vote if they cannot speak English. The nation’s political discourse is in English and whether a voter has access to this discourse will surely be a factor in whether a potential voter will enter a world of ideas and information leading to the perception that getting out to vote is crucial. The Latino population has a large proportion of non-English speakers whereas whites and African Americans generally speak English primarily. This perhaps also helps to explain low voter turnout among Asians, a large proportion of which are foreign-born as are Latinos. This deficiency might be remedied by access to Spanish language ballots, but this doesn’t seem to be enough. A culture of political participation needs to be created by Spanish language media (and English-language Latino media for that matter). Latino focused media must emphasize the importance of voting. Something like this seems to be occurring among stations such as Univision and among the burgeoning participation of Latinos in social media, which has recently been reported in an article by New America Media.
2. The percentage of the Latino population that is under 18 is higher than any other group. 34.9%, or 17.6 million Latinos, are not yet of voter age. The U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t seem to have data regarding how many among these are citizens, but it is surely a large share. Latino political influence will increase gradually and dramatically in the next two decades as this under-18 population becomes eligible to vote.
3. The Latino population has a lower percentage of college-educated voters than do the other demographic groups. Historically, college educated voters 18-29 are almost twice as likely to vote than are non-college educated voters, but the Latino population is lagging behind all other demographic groups in college experience. Only 13% of Latinos 25 and older have a B.A. or higher. By comparison with African Americans, who have the second lowest percentage of college graduates, 19% of them 25 and over have a B.A. or higher. This suggests that a get-out-the-vote agenda should focus on increasing the percentage of college-educated persons, not only a means to economic empowerment, but also as a means of ensuring a population of consistent voters.
4. The lack of a perceived leader is a factor in why there is not a higher percentage of Latino turnout among voters 18-29. The Pew Hispanic Center has a poll documenting the perception among Latinos that there is no clear national leader among Latinos. The influence of this factor is striking when one considers that the African American voter turnout rate among youth has increased dramatically since Obama became the perceived national leader among that group. This suggests that if there ever were a Latino leader of national stature and high charisma, Latino youth would turn out in larger numbers. In 2008 African American youth voters voted at a higher percentage than white youth for the first time ever and that trend continued in 2010. In 2008, African Americans aged 18-24 had a voter turnout rate of 55.4%, which was 8% higher than their rate in 2004. By contrast, the voter turnout rate in 2008 was 49.4% for Whites, 38.8% for Latinos, and 40.6% for Asians. The African American youth vote turned out the highest rate again in 2010 with a voter turnout rate of 27.5%. By contrast, in 2010 White youth turned out 24.9%, Latino youth turned out 17.6%, and Asians turned out 17.7%.