Hispanics on brink of altering American politics forever
For a demographics geek like me, the U.S. census has been crammed with enthralling information about emerging trends in the United States that will, without a doubt, dramatically shake up American politics in the years to come.
Among the most profound was the data released last week that shows the country’s Hispanic population ballooning at a pace even greater than predicted.
There are now more than 50 million Hispanics in the United States, or one in six people. More than 20 million of them are eligible to vote. They make up 16 per cent of the population, outnumbering African Americans, who represent 12.9 per cent. One in four American children is Latino.
This won’t come as a surprise if you’ve spent any time in a major American city. I have heard far more Spanish being spoken in the United States, and in a larger array of cities from coast to coast and in between, than I have ever heard French being spoken in Canada. The political ramifications of this demographic explosion are enormous and, for now, are boding better for Democrats than Republicans.
That’s certainly not to suggest that Hispanics vote monolithically — they don’t. As with any other voting bloc, the state of the economy will trump almost any other issue, even immigration reform, the chief concern of the Latino community.
Most vote Democrat, but not overwhelmingly so. While far more voted for Barack Obama than John McCain in 2008, there wasn’t such a rejection of Republicans in 2004, when 5.1 million Hispanics voted for Democratic candidates compared to 4.3 million who voted for the GOP.
Nonetheless, most political observers agree the Democrats are currently better positioned to take advantage of the growing demographic than the Republican party, which now has Tea Party adherents among its legislators — and they’re largely anti-immigration.
That’s why we saw President Obama visit El Paso, Texas, a couple of weeks ago to push for comprehensive immigration reform. Obama challenged law-makers to enact new immigration laws while lauding immigrants for the boon they provide to the U.S. economy.
"We’ve got to put the politics aside," he told the cheering crowd.
The Republicans know they have a problem. Hector Barajas, a Spanish media spokesman for both George W. Bush and McCain, has been urging high-ranking Republicans to take note of the swelling Hispanic population — and to capitalize on the fact that Latinos have been deeply disappointed by the Obama administration’s failure to pass immigration reform.
In Texas, some local Republican legislators have been hearing the message loud and clear, and are calling for less punitive immigration laws. Nationally, Republican party officials are redoubling their efforts to recruit Hispanic candidates.
There’s also a new social movement afoot. You’ve heard of the Tea Party. You might not have heard of the Tequila Party.
Formed this past May 5 — Cinco de Mayo, the Mexican holiday — Tequila Party organizers say their movement is non-partisan, and made up of both Republicans and Democrats whose goal is to compel the country’s eligible Hispanic voters to routinely cast ballots in both primaries and general elections.
Organizers are unapologetic about the movement’s name — Latinos like humour, the group’s main political consultant told CNN this week (after all, many Latinos protested mightily when Warner Brothers banned Speedy Gonzales cartoons from distribution) — and point out that there is now a massive group of Americans united by culture and language. The group’s goal, organizers insist, is not to endorse political candidates.
Skeptics, including many young, educated Latinos, are distrustful of the Tequila Party, believing it to be a Republican front group hoping to get Hispanics on board.
But whatever the Tequila Party’s genesis, one thing is clear: Both Democrats and Republicans have something to fear, and something to gain, from this exploding Hispanic voting bloc.
The question now is this: Which party will have the political courage to accept what demographers already know — the United States is becoming a nation predominantly made up of minorities, not of white people. That’s an inescapable reality that does not sit well with the aging, socially conservative white people who make up so much of the Republican party’s base, and in fact fuels much of the anti-immigration sentiment in the U.S.
But whoever deals with immigration reform once and for all will almost certainly win the enduring loyalty of a demographic that grows mightier and more numerous by the day.