Hispanics' Ascent Drives Early Moves in 2012 Race
Here are two numbers that ought to worry Republicans: 56% and 64%.
Those numbers are, respectively, the percentage of America's population growth in the last decade that came from Hispanics, and the percentage of Hispanics who voted for Democrats last year.
Here is the number that ought to worry Democrats: 69%.
That is the percentage of eligible Hispanic voters who didn't show up to vote in 2010's midterm elections.
This picture—of a big and growing Hispanic population, friendly to Democrats yet still a sleeping giant in electoral terms—explains much of the activity you are seeing in early rounds of the 2012 political cycle.
It explains why President Barack Obama did no fewer than four events targeted at Hispanics in the past two weeks. It also explains why one of the first things Newt Gingrich did after declaring his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination was to sit down for an interview with the Spanish-language network Univision (where his opening line was delivered in Spanish: "Jorge, gracias por invitarme a tu programa," or, "Jorge, thanks for inviting me to your program.")
And it explains why there are suddenly efforts to revive a broad bill revising American immigration laws, a subject that had been slumbering peacefully but now is discussed as one of the few topics a deeply divided Congress might attempt to tackle in the next year.
The Hispanic vote has long been a topic of fascination and obsession for political junkies, but the real-world results of last year's midterm elections— combined with the simple and overwhelming demographic realities—make its importance impossible to ignore and hard to overstate.
It is only a slight exaggeration to say that Democrats retained control of the Senate last year—even while losing control of the House—because of the Hispanic vote. Hispanic voters clearly saved the job of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada, and likely the job of Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet. They also were crucial for a few other Democrats, including Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington—and all that in a year when Hispanic turnout wasn't exactly stunning.
Demographic trends mean the Hispanic vote could be decisive in the coming presidential election, especially because the 2012 vote figures to be closer in some key states than was the 2008 election that brought Mr. Obama to power. A few statistics make the point.
The 2010 Census showed that the country's Hispanic population grew by 43% over the previous decade, while the white population grew by less than 6%. The median age of the Hispanic population is 27.4; for the white population, the median age is 41.2, and for the country as a whole 36.8.
For political purposes, it is even more important to look at how the Hispanic vote will affect key swing states Mr. Obama won in 2008 but figures to have a tougher time retaining in 2012. These states aren't merely the predictable ones in the Southwest, but in unexpected places as well. In particular, the Hispanic vote could well be decisive in Virginia and North Carolina.
Over time, Hispanics also will change the politics of the Republican strongholds of Georgia, where the Hispanic population nearly doubled over the last decade, and even deep-red Texas, where 38% of the population now is Hispanic. Fun fact: The second most popular name for a baby boy born in Texas last year was Jose.
The obvious question, then, is what the two parties' relative strengths and weaknesses are among Hispanics. Democrats have the historic and more natural appeal: They are the party with a far larger share of minorities in its base, and the party that champions social programs important to many low-income Hispanics. The Democrats' mainstream position on an immigration overhaul—more open, for example, to paving a path to citizenship for illegal aliens who have been working and paying taxes for a long period—has given them a more friendly feel to many Hispanics.
Yet the problem for Democrats is that they haven't turned this hospitable population into the kind of electoral force it might be; the 31.2% of eligible Hispanics who voted in 2010 compares to 48.5% among whites, according to a new report from the Pew Hispanic Center. Moreover, it is possible a recent Obama administration crackdown on illegal aliens in the workplace could engender a backlash.
To them, Republicans' message will be two-fold: Jobs are the most important issue to Hispanics, and we are the job-creating party, and Republicans share the conservative social values predominant in the Hispanic community.
The Republican National Committee is beefing up its staff for communicating to Hispanics, and pointing to a significant number of Hispanics elected as Republicans last year. In sum, when it comes to Hispanics, it's game on.