Florida may be do-or-die for 2012ers
It's all coming down to Florida, again.
The fight for the GOP presidential nomination looks increasingly like it could be decided by a state with a rule-breaking, unsanctioned election that has thrown the presidential primary calendar in flux.
Just like in 2008.
That's partly a statement on the 2012 GOP field: Each Republican contender has strong incentives to play hard in Florida's out-of-order primary to compensate for their weakness in one or more of the traditional early states.
More important, in a wide-open primary field it's not clear that any candidate can afford to skip even an unauthorized contest in the nation's largest swing state.
As a result, Florida's months-long staring contest with the Republican National Committee over the primary date is a moot point: GOP White House hopefuls are already preparing to contest Florida like a bona fide early presidential state.
"I think they're definitely all in," said Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos. "Those people I've talked to on the phone have said, ‘We're playing in Florida regardless of when your primary is.'"
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour actually went further than that last week, when he announced on a trip to Tallahassee: "I'm going to run to win the Florida primary whether they have any delegates or have as many delegates or twice as many delegates or no delegates."
The bet that Barbour and his potential opponents are placing is that Florida will provide someone in the race with a major jolt of momentum, and it might as well be them.
That's what happened four years ago, when John McCain's victory in Florida cemented his advantage in the GOP primaries and dealt Mitt Romney a blow from which he never recovered.
It could take until next fall to resolve exactly when Florida's primary will take place next year. The vote is currently scheduled for Jan. 31, but state lawmakers are considering several other dates in February and March that would allow Florida to go fifth in the primary lineup. If the state insisted on voting before the first Tuesday in March, it would face a delegate penalty at the convention in Tampa.
Florida's primary was out of order in 2008, too. But when it came time to impose penalties at the Republican National Convention, the credentialing committee balked at punishing delegates from an essential general-election state.
The rules are a bit different this time around. Florida's delegates will be awarded proportionally instead of on a winner-take-all basis, so it's possible for a candidate to place second or third and live to fight another day. But the 2008 experience is a big part of why state Republicans are so emboldened in their fight with the national party.
"I don't see any way they don't finish something like fifth in line, in terms of chronology," said Republican strategist Mike Murphy. "They're a big player to begin with. They were a big player last time. It was kind of the neck-breaker, after South Carolina."
Each 2012 candidate has a slightly different reason for targeting Florida. For Barbour, the huge, expensive state is one of the first places where his fundraising muscle and Southern charm could give him a leg up on the field.
For a contender like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty - or, potentially, Ambassador Jon Huntsman - a strong showing in Florida would cement any momentum earned in the smaller early states, an exhibition of strength in a state that couldn't easily be dismissed.
And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has made no secret of the central role Florida plays in his 2012 strategy. He's been to the state five times this year - as recently as last weekend - versus a combined total of zero visits to Iowa and South Carolina.
For Romney, who is expected to emerge from the first four primaries with a combination of wins and losses, a big win in Florida could establish him as the clear front-runner and break the momentum of any upstart surging out of Iowa.
"Romney is well ahead and I think Haley, organizationally, is probably in second," said Brian Ballard, a well-connected Tallahassee lobbyist who has not signed on with a campaign yet. "If you look at the top 50 or so money guys in the state, Romney's got a decent chunk of those."
Al Hoffman, a former RNC finance chair and ambassador who resides in Florida, agreed that Romney's "the standout right now in terms of organization in money."
But Hoffman suggested there's plenty of space for other candidates to compete with Romney: "For all the advance work he has done, for him not to be way ahead of the pack right now, is telling."
Hoffman has not backed a candidate yet, though he volunteered Pawlenty as the "real dark horse" in the race so far.
Florida polling shows the race there is in roughly the same, unsettled shape it's in nationally. Romney has a solid but not prohibitive edge.
A Suffolk University survey last week showed Romney with 33 percent of the vote, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14 percent. A Mason-Dixon survey commissioned by the Tallahassee PR firm Ron Sachs Communications showed Romney at 23 percent, with Huckabee at 18 percent and Donald Trump at 13 percent.
Mel Sembler, another former RNC finance chairman and ambassador, said Romney's "support is very good" but acknowledged that the race very much in flux.
"I think Florida voters are going to take a look at all of them," said Sembler, who is supporting Romney. "They've all called, even John Bolton."
He added: "I've not heard from Sarah Palin, and I've not heard from Donald Trump."
Though Romney has a clear head start in Florida, his possible rivals have also scored big recruiting wins there. Barbour landed Sally Bradshaw, a former chief of staff to Jeb Bush, as an adviser to his political operation. Pawlenty has hired two Florida-based fundraisers, Ann Herberger and Gretchen Picotte.
Horizon PAC, the campaign-in-waiting for Huntsman, is run by longtime Florida strategist Susie Wiles, who managed Gov. Rick Scott's successful 2010 campaign. And even Trump is eyeing Florida-savvy operatives, including former Scott campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio and Florida-based ad man Rick Wilson, for his potential campaign.
While there's plenty of uncertainty around the exact timing of the Florida primary, there's already an early trial heat scheduled: Florida Republicans will hold a straw poll at the "Presidency 5" conference in late September. Candidates who want an early bounce in the state are expected to compete for support from over 3,000 prechosen delegates his summer.
"Everybody thinks Florida costs so much, the television's so expensive - and it is - but for this first phase, it's retail," said GOP ad man David Johnson, who recalled Florida's last straw poll in 1995 as a major media event.
"The only cable network in '95 was CNN. There was no Fox News. This will be nonstop coverage," he predicted. "The campaigns that come down here and work this and really invest time and resources into organizing their retail, it will help them immensely."
So far, no candidate has called Florida's primary an illegitimate contest or vowed to skip it in deference to traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
But there's still the possibility that the 2012 calendar could get really messy if one or more of the major Republican contenders gets cold feet about competing in the Sunshine State.
On the Democratic side in 2008, Hillary Clinton competed only tentatively in rule-breaking Florida, while the Obama campaign skipped the state entirely. When Clinton tried to count delegates from her wins in the unsanctioned Florida and Michigan primaries later on, the Obama campaign cried foul - successfully.
So if some major player on the Republican side eventually concludes they're better off without a major contest in Florida, there's plenty of time to try to undermine the primary.
But that approach, strategists note, is not necessarily the best way to kick off a general-election courtship of Florida.
"It's always better to compete in as many places as possible," said Phil Singer, an adviser to Clinton's 2008 campaign. "The threat of docking delegates is for show. No matter what a candidate decides, the party will make sure its Florida delegation is happy, given the role the state plays in the general."
But, he recalled: "if history on the Democratic side is any indication, candidates get no benefit from competing and no penalty for skipping the Florida primary."