California's Republicans: Dead or just resting?
THE Republican Party in California is “already dead. We’re talking about whether it can be revived,” says Allan Hoffenblum, who was a Republican official and consultant for four decades and now produces non-partisan electoral analysis. He is among a growing number of mainly old-fashioned Republicans who think that their party has got on the wrong side of a huge demographic trend, the growth of Latinos and Asians.
This shift forms the backdrop as Republicans and Democrats play chicken with the state budget in Sacramento, rather as their national counterparts are doing with the federal budget in Washington, DC. In both places, all involved are hoping the other side gets more blame when budget negotiations fail.
But Washington’s Republicans are still testing the power they won in November. Sacramento’s, by contrast, are fighting for survival after a season of epic reverses. All eight statewide offices went to Democrats in the last election. And after falling for decades, the percentage of Californian voters who are registered Republican is now less than 31%, far below the 44% who are Democrats and not far above the 20% who decline to state a preference.
Duf Sundheim, chairman of California’s Republican Party between 2003 and 2006, says that the main trend behind these numbers is the disenchantment with both parties, reflected in the rise of unaffiliated voters. But the damage has not been symmetrical. For although the Democrats have their crazies—largely of the green or unionised sort—they have also picked up most of the rising Latino and Asian political talent. And they tend to be moderate, or even conservative. This may help explain why independent voters in California lean Democratic in elections.
Mr Hoffenblum minces no words about what caused this loss for Republicans. It is the “shrillness” of their rhetoric against illegal immigrants, which has “totally turned off Latinos and Asians in this state,” even those who are citizens or legal immigrants. In effect, he says, the Republicans have made themselves “the white man’s party” and “alienated the fastest growing voting block.”
Ahead of the nation in the demographic shift from white to brown, California may thus be a warning for Republicans elsewhere. Already, places like Orange County that used to be very white and reliably Republican are becoming less so as they grow more ethnically diverse. The biggest change is occurring in inland regions such as the Central Valley. After the 2000 census, when both parties shamelessly gerrymandered legislative districts, the Republicans carved out several safe, white rural districts. Since then, the population has grown fast in these areas, but that growth has been among Latinos. So Republicans might actually lose from the trends that have favoured their regions.
So far, they show no sign of acknowledging this. At a recent party convention, the main topic was not how to reach out to independents or Latinos but how to get around new rules for non-partisan primaries that might favour moderates, and how to discipline “traitors” who dared negotiate with the Democratic governor. Mr Sundheim says it’s time to get the board in the water in time for the wave.