21.5 Million Latinos Eligible to Vote, an Estimated 8 Million Still Need to Register
With the recent release of the national Census data pundits have been quick to point out the obvious: the Latino population is growing! As if data points from the annual Current Population Survey, and now American Community Survey did not already tell us this on a yearly basis, the official 2010 decennial census now confirms that more than 50 million Latinos are part of America and politicians should take note. However, the lingering question on journalists minds is whether or not this population growth will transfer into immediate political power?
With 33 U.S. Senate contests and a Presidential election across 50 states in 2012, the Latino voter is positioned to have a bigger impact than ever on the political landscape of America. However, even as the citizen eligible population is increasing rapidly, Latinos continue to face a registration gap vis-a-vis Whites and African Americans. Despite massive voter registration drives in 2008 and 2010, only about 60% of Latino citizen adults are registered to vote, compared to 70% of Blacks, and 74% of Whites.
By the 2012 election, Latinos will account for over 10% of the citizen adult population - potential voters - in 11 states. In another 13 states, Latino account for 5-10% of the citizen adult population. All told, that’s 24 states where Latinos have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes, given a competitive statewide election.
Overall, Latino Decisions estimate 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be eligible to vote in November 2012, up from 19.5 million in 2008. If registration rates remain constant, that will leave over 8 million Latino eligible voters who are not registered in 2012. With significant voter registration drives the Latino vote can go from influential to essential.
For example, while Latinos are growing in influence in Arizona, there are over 400,000 Latinos eligible to vote who are not yet registered. In Florida it’s even more - over 600,000 Latinos could be added to the voter rolls. Newly naturalized citizens and young Latinos turning 18 are adding literally a half-million of new potential voters each year.