Reince Priebus' To-Do List
Last Friday, Reince Priebus was elected chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), replacing Michael Steele who had held the job for the last two years. The RNC chairmanship is a multi-faceted position that requires its officeholder to handle tasks ranging from fundraising to message development to voter mobilization.
In the aftermath of the 2010 Midterm elections, it would appear as if Chairman Priebus is in an ideal environment to accomplish these tasks. A closer look, though, reveals an array of challenges for the RNC that if not successfully addressed could spell trouble for the party's electoral prospects in the 2012 elections.
Increase Republican Fundraising. One of the primary reasons for Steele's ouster and Priebus' election was the significant drop in fundraising for the RNC. The RNC routinely out raises its Democratic counterpart, holding a sizable monetary advantage in most election cycles, including those in which the political landscape was more favorable for Democrats. According to Federal Election Commission reports, the RNC had contributions of $238 million by the end of the 2006 election cycle compared to $129 million for the DNC. In the 2008 election cycle, the RNC advantage grew even more, with receipts of $417 million compared to $254 million for the DNC.
In the 2010 election cycle, however, RNC fundraising took a major hit. Contributions fell more than 20 percent from the 2006 midterm elections. Worse, the DNC outraised the RNC $222 million to $193 million, despite the hostile political climate for Democrats. A Washington Post investigation revealed that the RNC did particularly poorly among major donors - those giving $10,000 or more. The RNC received only $7 million from large contributors, down more than 75 percent from the 2006 midterm elections and a whopping $31 million less than the DNC.
This shortfall may have even suppressed Republicans gains in the 2010 Midterm elections. The resignation letter sent by Gentry Collins, the political director of the RNC, to Michael Steele and obtained by the website Politico contended that the shortfall in funding undermined the Republican get-out-the-vote effort and cost them at the polls. Collins claimed research suggested that Republicans could have been more competitive in 21 more House races and won Senate seats in Colorado and Washington.
Revitalize the Republican Brand. Chairman Preibus also has work to do to improve the Republican Party brand. Republicans won a majority of House seats in the 2010 congressional elections despite their image, not because of it. Exit polls showed that 53 percent of voters nationwide had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, including 24 percent of self-identified Republicans. Those with an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party voted for Democratic candidates by a 3-to-1 margin.
Even more troubling is the standing of the party in battleground states that are likely to play a pivotal role in the 2012 elections. State exit polls show a majority of voters hold unfavorable opinions of Republicans in nearly every key battleground state. Fifty-six percent of voters in Colorado had an unfavorable opinion of Republicans. In Pennsylvania and Ohio, 54 percent of the state's voters were unhappy with the GOP.
Fifty-two percent of voters in Nevada held unfavorable views, as did 51 percent of voters in Florida and Missouri.
Attract Hispanic Voters. Of all the groups in the electorate that the Republican Party has to do a better job connecting with, perhaps the most important are Hispanic voters. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, Hispanics accounted for more than half of the growth in the United States in the last ten years and are far more heavily populated in states gaining Electoral Votes in the upcoming reapportionment than in those losing them. Republicans have done quite poorly in appealing to Hispanic voters in recent presidential elections, a pattern that Priebus must try to reverse if the next Republican nominee is to defeat President Obama in his bid for re-election in 2012.
In the 2008 presidential election, Mr. Obama overwhelmingly defeated Republican nominee John McCain 67 percent to 31 percent among Hispanic voters. More importantly, Hispanics played a key role in flipping several battleground states from the Republican column to the Democratic column.
In New Mexico, Hispanics made up 41 percent of voters and preferred Mr.Obama to McCain by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Mr. Obama squeaked out a 2.5 point win in Florida, but defeated McCain 57 percent to 42 percent among the 1-in-7 voters who are Hispanic in the state. In Nevada, Hispanic voters comprised 15 percent of the electorate and chose Mr. Obama over McCain 76 percent to 22 percent. Finally, Mr. Obama easily bested McCain 61 percent to 38 percent among the 13 percent of Hispanic voters in the Colorado electorate.
The 2010 elections, however, showed that Republicans are capable of doing better with Hispanic voters. A majority of Hispanics in Florida voted for the Republican Senate candidate (in which a Hispanic was the Republican nominee) and the Republican Gubernatorial candidate (in which a Hispanic was not the Republican nominee). In Nevada, Republicans reduced the Democrats winning margin in the races for Senate and Governor by more than fifteen points.
The results suggest that Priebus must try to recruit more Hispanics to run on Republican tickets as well as identify the campaign messages that attracted increased Hispanic support and build on them moving forward.
Halt Obama's rising approval rating. Since the 2010 Midterm elections, Mr. Obama has experienced a bit of a renaissance as he made the most of his opportunities to confront several growing criticisms.
The lame duck session in Congress enabled him to counter charges of a "do-nothing presidency" by extending the Bush tax cuts for two more years, passing an arms reduction treaty with the Russians, and repealing the "don't ask, don't tell" policy banning gay military personnel from serving openly. He made a renewed commitment to bipartisanship by repeatedly working across the aisle in recent months. And, his eulogy at the memorial for victims of the Tucson shootings gave him a chance to undermine elitist characterizations and show his human side.
Americans have clearly noticed and approved of his efforts. Numerous polls show that Mr. Obama's overall ratings have climbed in the past two months, with many indicating that more Americans approve of his performance than disapprove of it. Gallup's daily tracking poll recently showed that Mr. Obama reached 50 percent approval for the first time since June of last year after sitting in the low to mid forties for much of 2010.
Priebus' mission will be to find a way to reverse this trend before it is too late. Presidents Reagan and Clinton were both mired in approval ratings in the low to mid-forties at the end of their first midterm, before turning it around and mounting landslide victories in their re-election efforts.
A poll conducted last week by the Pew Research center shows that emphasizing on the economy might be the most successful way to accomplish this feat. Despite a plurality of Americans approving of the president's performance overall in the poll, a modest 42 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy. Only 35 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the budget deficit. Both numbers remain essentially unchanged from when they were asked in June of 2010.
Develop New Legislative Initiatives. In order for Priebus to accomplish the aforementioned tasks, the Republican Party is going to have to alter their political approach. For the last two years, the Democrats controlled the White House and outnumbered them in the House and Senate. Being the out party enabled Republicans to play the role of critic, questioning and countering Democratic efforts, without needing to worry about initiating any of their own legislation. They effectively became the "party of no" whether they enjoyed the label or not.
Now the Republicans control the House and need to use the platform to introduce legislation that satisfies public demands. Republicans have been against the stimulus package, but the public wants job creation and safeguards for the long-term unemployed. Republicans have been opposed to Mr. Obama's health care plan, but a majority of Americans want employers to be required to provide health insurance, want insurance companies to be prevented from dropping people who become seriously ill, and want individuals with pre-existing conditions to be able to get coverage. Republicans have supported Arizona's anti-immigration law and oppose amnesty to illegal immigrants, but Hispanics feel angry and alienated.
Backers of Reince Priebus touted his work ethic during his campaign to win the RNC chairmanship. With the number of challenges facing the Republican Party in the coming year, it will most surely be put the test. No one knows that better than Priebus himself, who remarked after winning the election, "I'm going to start working right now."