Is three days into 2011 too early to begin intensive number-crunching over the 2012 presidential vote?

Not on your life. The unofficial campaign has been under way for months.  The official race begins soon. The Obama camp has already decided to run its re-election bid from Chicago instead of Washington, and David Axelrod, his top aide, will move there in February to start the effort.

So here’s some early number-crunching — from a Republican, no less — that suggests the party shouldn’t get too excited about its success in the mid-term elections, because Electoral College realities and demographic changes still heavily favour the President.

It’s a bit convoluted, but comes down to this: Apart from the power of incumbency, and Obama’s skill as a campaigner, the Republicans have run out of room to grow. Even if Obama loses four of five “red rogue” states — states that usually vote Republican but backed Obama in 2008 — he will still likely win. The reason:  the rise in the Hispanic population and the determination of Hispanic leaders to increase the voting turnout in 2012.

Any way you look at it, the 2012 electoral map is not user friendly for the GOP presidential nominee, even if national unemployment stays at 10% and the economy is sluggish.

The hope for Republicans in 2012 must lie in traditionally Democratic and  electoral rich blue states like NY, MI, NJ, and PA. But I would not want to bet the farm on those states, with their deep blue voting patterns and heavy union membership.

The new reality is the GOP has run out of reliable red states due to changing Hispanic demographics and Hispanics’ group loyalty to President Obama and the Democratic Party in general.

In 2012, the African-American vote combined with the Hispanic vote will comprise at least 30% of the electorate. If Obama wins these groups by the same percentages he did in 2008, 95% for African Americans and 67% for Hispanics, he easily wins re-election. Unless Republicans can make major inroads into those two minority groups, whatever Democrat follows Obama in 2016 will also start off with a huge electoral advantage.