Latino voters turnout to play crucial role in polls
Perhaps only in California would a voter registration drive have allowed new voters to put their names on the
electoral roll from the comfort of their own cars. Yet when Voto Latino set up a “drive-in” registration site it
signed up scores of new voters.
The non-partisan group aims to increase political engagement among Hispanic people and a month-long push at locations in California, Texas and Arizona yielded 10,000 new voters, continuing a decade-long trend of broadening Latino electoral participation in the US.
Latinos are America’s fastest growing demographic group with more than 6.5m forecast to vote in next week’s
elections – equivalent to about 7 per cent of the electorate – according to the National Association of Latino
Elected and Appointed Officials. That figure is higher in states like California, where Latinos represent as much as 20 per cent of the vote.
According to a recent poll from the Pew Research Center, Latinos are unlikely to turn out with the force that they did in 2008, when their support helped sweep Barack Obama to victory in several key swing states – notably Nevada and Florida. But groups such as Voto Latino dispute the Pew findings and deny that there is an enthusiasm gap ahead of the midterms. In fact, they say those who write off the Latino vote this November are in for a shock.
“In every election there is usually an October surprise, whether it’s a gaffe [by a candidate] or something else,” says Maria Teresa Kumar, founding executive director of Voto Latino. “I think Latino voters will be the October surprise of these midterms.” She points to possible flaws in the Pew polling methodology, saying that many young Latinos use cell phones and do not have landline telephones – the main way pollsters gather their information.
Rather than disengage from the political process, she says Latinos have in recent weeks begun to realise what is at stake – particularly in swing states, such as Nevada.Nevada is the home of one of the election’s closest Senate races, with Sharron Angle hoping to unseat Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader. Ms Angle has made immigration a central plank of her campaign and has claimed that Mr. Reid’s policies benefit illegal immigrants.
This has become a motivation for Nevada’s Latino voters, according to Ms Kumar. “Latino voters in Nevada are looking at a candidate [Sharron Angle] who is putting out racist ads that blame job losses and the economy [on illegal immigrants].”
John Tuman, chair of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, agrees Ms Angle risks losing Latino backing. Her tactics “raise the risk of alienating the Latino electorate . . . she has left little doubt that she is willing to cede the Latino portion of the electorate to Reid”.
Such a strategy carries long-term risks for the Republicans, if the experience of California is anything to go by. In 1994 controversial legislation aimed at denying public services to illegal immigrants saw Republicans lose Latino support “for a generation”, says Ms Kumar. “It pushed Latinos away from Republicans and into the Democratic column and is one of the principle reasons why California is such a blue state,” says Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected Latino Officials.
Candidates running for office in California know they need Latino support to win. Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate for governor in California, has spent close to $140m on her campaign, yet is lagging behind Jerry Brown in the polls – partly because of damaging revelations that she employed an illegal immigrant housekeeper for nine years before abruptly firing her. “She’s lagging Brown two to one among Latinos,” adds Mr Vargas, pointing to Ms Whitman’s tough stance on immigration in a bruising Republican primary. “It could cost her the election.”
The vast number of Latinos in California means they speak with a powerful voice in the state – when Arizona’s controversial new immigration law was passed it was swiftly condemned by officials across California, for example.
California’s experience points to the future of other states, says Mr Vargas. “Trends that begin in California tend to migrate eastward.” Latinos, he adds, “are a core demographic in California . . . we believe Latinos are a core future demographic in America”.
Across the country, new polling evidence suggests Latinos are becoming more engaged in the election. Latino
Decisions, a research firm, found that the level of enthusiasm among Latino voters had risen by almost 50 percent in a month, rising from 40 per cent to close to 60 per cent.
If that momentum continues to grow, Latino voters could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.