Can candidates bridge voters' enthusiasm gap?
The paradox of the 2010 election is that it offers a fascinating set of highly competitive races - but does not seem to be generating much excitement among California voters.
I've asked just about every statewide candidate about the mood of the electorate, either during our endorsement interviews or in more informal conversation to and from the elevator. What is striking is the similarity of answers from Republican and Democrats: Voters of all political persuasions are angry, frustrated - and unpredictable. It's anything but clear if voters will express their disgust by voting out incumbents or simply staying home. Democrats, who enjoy a big registration edge, have the most to lose if that antipathy turns to apathy between now and Nov. 2.
Democrats have reason to worry.
Polls show the four highest-profile races - governor, U.S. Senate, lieutenant governor, attorney general - are all extremely close. But that rare level of competitiveness has not necessarily translated into voter engagement.
One reason is the relative lack of enthusiasm within each party for the top of the ticket. Republican Meg Whitman, distrusted from the start by some elements of her party's conservative wing, further alienated them by tacking to the center after the primary on issues such as climate change and immigration.
Democrat Jerry Brown has struggled to rally key segments of his party's base. A Field Poll in mid-September showed Whitman slightly ahead in Los Angeles County, even among women and just four points behind Brown with Latino voters. Whitman, who has pumped $140 million into her campaign, is also better known among young voters.
"They don't remember (Brown's) first term, they don't know who he is," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, which will be doing another survey this week.
DiCamillo said the Latino vote could determine the gubernatorial race - with ripple effects down the ballot. Latinos represent 22 percent of California voters, but only 15 percent of those determined to be likely to vote, the Field Poll found last month. If the controversy over Whitman's treatment of housekeeper Nicky Santillan Diaz erodes her support among Latinos, the key will be whether it shifts them to Brown or leads them to decide not to vote.
Another possible reason the electorate is less than enthralled with its choices is the negative character of the campaigns. Brown just released a TV spot chastising Whitman as dishonest; her ads have hammered him as a failure and a flip-flopper. The campaigns for the other three high-profile races also have been more prosecutorial than inspirational in tone.
Perhaps the candidate who would most benefit from a low turnout would be Carly Fiorina, the Republican challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. More than any high-level candidate in the state, Fiorina has courted the Tea Party movement and held fast to her conservative positions after the June primary. A high turnout would almost certainly guarantee Boxer a fourth term.
A potential wild card in this year's election turnout is Proposition 19, the initiative that would legalize marijuana. It polls strongest among younger voters, who would have the numbers to push it over the top - and offer a residual boost to Democrats in close races - if they show up.
"If I close my eyes, this looks like Proposition 8 (the 2008 measure to ban same-sex marriage) all over again ... this is a tug-of-war between the generations," DiCamillo said of the age breakdown in the polling on the two issues.
Two years ago, even with the record turnout drawn by the Obama-McCain race, older Californians voted in sufficient numbers to pass Prop. 8.
If there is a bellwether in the state, it would be the 11th Congressional District, which includes a slice of the comfortable suburbs of Danville and Pleasanton, stretches south past Morgan Hill in Santa Clara County and reaches east to Lodi and Manteca in the San Joaquin Valley. It is represented by Jerry McNerney, a Democrat who defeated incumbent Republican Richard Pombo in 2006.
This year, McNerney is facing a strong challenge from Republican David Harmer, who is running as a tough-love fiscal conservative whose austerity credentials begin with his pledge not to secure any earmarks for his district. He said the tide that is lifting his campaign is not so much partisan or ideological, but a "deep, deep dissatisfaction" with the status quo.
"People are troubled, even scared" about the nation's economic future, Harmer said.
But the question remains: Will that motivate or discourage voting? Both parties are bringing in their big draws this week - the Obamas, Bill Clinton, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich - to see if they generate an excitement that the candidates who are on the ballot have been unable to muster.