Latino Electoral Power Closely Watched in Midterms
WASHINGTON –- Latino voters, who surged to an all time high in 2008 and helped elect President Barack Obama, promise to be a pivotal but not-exactly-predictable force in the upcoming midterm elections.
This is particularly true in key states where they now make up a significant percentage of the overall electorate.
Deciding factor in Florida
They are expected to be the deciding factor in Florida -- where Cuban-American Republican Marco Rubio is running for the U.S. 
Senate -- and California, where Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is facing former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. There are also tight races and large Hispanic voter populations in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and New York.
But while Latinos could be swing voters in many races this year, there is some question about how many are likely they are to actually show up at the polls. Low voter turnout is the norm during midterm elections, especially among minority groups. Yet 2010 is a key election year that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress, who will win 37 governorships and the fate of hundreds of local candidates.
A poll conducted in March by Latino Decisions, a political research firm, indicated only 49 percent of Latino registered voters said they are very enthusiastic about voting this year. The findings at that time indicated a high level of Latino frustration with both political parties.
But more recent polls show greater interest in the midterm elections.
June poll
A majority –- 61 percent -- of Latino registered voters polled by the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials in June said they would “definitely” vote in November’s elections.
And 73 percent of the respondents in an August Latino Decisions tracking poll said they are “certain” to vote.
Gary Segura of Latino Decisions said an increase of campaign ads and information about the races could have shaken off some of the previously documented Latino voter apathy.
An Arizona law that would have allowed police to check the immigration status of anyone they stopped in that state could have also energized the Latino electorate, he said.
Arizona law suit
The Justice Department successfully challenged the Arizona law in court and was able to block most of its most controversial provisions.
In its tracking poll, Latino Decisions determined the economy was the primary concern of Latino voters this year, followed by immigration.
It also determined 64 percent of the Latino registered voters polled opposed the Arizona law and 66 percent supported the Justice Department’s lawsuit against Arizona.
Angry with both parties
The same poll showed that Latinos are blaming both parties for inaction on immigration reform.
“Latino voters appear to be very frustrated this year,” said Latino Decisions pollster Matt Baretto. “They’re seeing states like Arizona trying to implement a series of anti-immigration (measures) that would isolate Hispanic or Latino voters… What started with a lot of hope and optimism has now generated a lot of anger and frustration.”
“What become the conventional wisdom, that Hispanic voters are motivated by the immigration debate is becoming true,” said Jessica Levinson, political reform director for the Los Angeles-based Center for Governmental Studies.
'Impossible to predict'
Levinson said it’s impossible to predict Latino turnout this year. She said their numbers may be depressed in some states and less so in others.
“In states like California, however, you can’t underestimate the Hispanic voting bloc. They are and will be very powerful,” she said.
About 3.3 million, or nearly 20 percent, of California’s registered voters are Hispanic.
Levinson also said Latino voters will continue to favor Democratic candidates who are seen as more sympathetic to immigrant rights issues.
To Rosalind Gold, NALEO’s policy director, the outcomes of many races will hinge on how candidates reach out to Hispanic voters.
“And if a candidate talks about immigration in a way that inflames Latinos, that will mobilize Latinos to vote for the opponent,” she said.