Tuesday targets: Nine races to watch
WASHINGTON (Politico) - South Carolina's freak show politics, the progressive left's Arkansas muscle flexing, the astounding and obscene amount of statewide election spending in California - at least $120 million-plus and rising - all of it is part of Tuesday's dramatic primary election narrative.
Yet the headline-grabbing excesses of a few states have obscured a larger fact: With a Senate runoff, a House special election and 10 states going to the polls, it's the single biggest day on the 2010 election calendar prior to November.
With so many contests on the ballot, here is POLITICO's guide to the nine best races to watch Tuesday.
Arkansas Senate Runoff
With Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln's career on the line, this one easily rates as the day's marquee Senate contest.
Sure, this race is about ambition - no one has ever described Lt. Gov. Bill Halter otherwise - but the real story of the runoff is in its implications for Democratic centrists across the nation.
Fueled by progressive support, Halter's campaign accelerated from zero to 60 in almost no time, rapidly closing the gap on a well-funded, scandal-free two-term incumbent who carried the White House imprimatur.
Whether Halter topples Lincoln or not - he had a slight edge in the most recent poll - the lesson many moderates will take from Arkansas is clear: Don't mess with the left.
It won't necessarily be obvious this year since many filing deadlines and primary dates have already passed, but it will be over the next two years. There are 21 Senate Democrats up for re-election in 2012 and a handful of them will be eyeballing the Arkansas results for clues on what to expect. And if their voting records don't reflect their uneasiness, their early campaign treasuries will.
South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary
What more can be said about the depravity of South Carolina politics?
Somehow, after sidestepping racial slurs and late-breaking allegations that she had engaged in extramarital affairs, state Rep. Nikki Haley remains in a commanding position in the Republican primary for governor. Few doubt she'll finish first on Tuesday, so the only remaining question is whether she can break the 50 percent necessary to avoid a June 22 runoff.
If she wins the GOP nomination, she'll be the heavy favorite in the fall to become South Carolina's first female governor. And if that occurs, as a female, Indian-American governor of a Southern state - and one that is critical in the presidential nominating process - Haley will suddenly become one of the hottest properties in the Republican Party.
While the jokes about the GOP's diversity won't stop, it will be hard not to notice that the Republican Party has two Indian-American governors in the Deep South.
South Carolina 4th District Primary
GOP Rep. Bob Inglis has been tempting fate in one of the most socially conservative congressional districts in the nation.
A maverick's maverick, he has expressed opposition to warrantless electronic surveillance and the military surge in Iraq, criticized GOP climate change skeptics, opposed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and even voted against establishing constitutional protection of the phrase "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance.
Any one of them could have caused him trouble in his solidly Republican upstate district, but taken as a whole, they could prove fatal to his career.
How bad is it for him? A public poll released Thursday showed Inglis in second place in the crowded Republican primary, with just one-third of the vote. With that level of support, the only question will be whether he makes the June 22 runoff.
While an Inglis defeat will get chalked up as anti-incumbent sentiment or evidence of a Republican purge, don't buy it. Inglis, who is on his second tour of duty in the House, went into this eyes wide open. He knows his district as well as anyone and is well-aware of the consequences of his votes. As much as anything else, this is a race about the iron laws of congressional district constituency politics.
Nevada Senate Primary
For most of the election cycle, the conventional wisdom has been that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is toast in November. His polling has been awful, it's a tough year to run as a Democrat, and he just can't seem to get any traction back home.
His saving grace, all along, has been the weakness of the GOP field. Now, as Reid has show some signs of life in the polls - he raised eyebrows recently simply by having a slight lead in some matchups - the prospect of former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle emerging as the GOP nominee is providing another burst of enthusiasm among his supporters.
Democrats see Angle, who has surged to the lead in recent polls, as fatally flawed - the weakest candidate in a GOP field that includes former state party Chairwoman Sue Lowden and businessman Danny Tarkanian and one whose views aren't well-suited for a general election or for the onslaught of spending that Reid will release.
If Angle indeed emerges as the winner, look for an immediate pivot to the general. And if it doesn't happen quickly, Reid will be poised for one of the all-time political comebacks.
Nevada Gubernatorial Primary
It's not often that a political party holds its breath, hoping that an incumbent governor goes down in flames in the primary election. Yet that's the situation in Nevada, where Republicans will be infinitely better positioned to hold the governorship if Gov. Jim Gibbons loses Tuesday.
The public polls reflect that sentiment: Former state Attorney General and federal court Judge Brian Sandoval leads by a wide margin over the embattled governor in the primary.
Consider these two matchups: According to a recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, likely Democratic nominee Rory Reid - the son of the senator - leads Gibbons 52 percent to 31 percent.
But when Reid is matched against Sandoval, the tables are turned: Sandoval has a lead of 51 percent to 41 percent.
No matter who wins the GOP nomination, Nevada will see one of the most fascinating statewide tickets in modern politics, with a father and son combination at the top and plenty of incentives for one to cut the other loose.
California Gubernatorial Primary
The Democratic nomination for California governor is all but set: It will be state Attorney General Jerry Brown, former Oakland mayor, two-term governor and three-time presidential candidate.
While it's unclear whether voters are ready to embrace him nearly 40 years after his first election as governor, there's no question he's a heavyweight whom Republicans will need to match with a similarly supersize character.
The GOP's choices are Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who together have plowed $80 million into their campaigns - at the very least - and perhaps much more, according to some reports.
Whitman, who has done the bulk of the spending, boasts a wide lead over Poizner in the most recent polls. The good news for the GOP is that, unlike Brown, she's a fresh face on the political scene and she's willing and able to spend the kind of silly money necessary to introduce oneself to voters in a state with 11 media markets.
The bad news? The race to the right between Poizner and Whitman may have caused lasting damage to her candidacy in a general election - particularly among Hispanic voters.
California Senate Primary
Republicans have long contended that Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is too liberal even for California. Yet the challenges never seem to gel.
This year, however, polls show Boxer is uniquely vulnerable, and her GOP opponents appear to be within striking distance.
Leading the Republican pack is Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, who has spent close to $7 million already. Fiorina leads former Rep. Tom Campbell by 15 percentage points in the latest California Field Poll, with Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in third place with 19 percent.
If Fiorina takes the nomination, Boxer will get an opponent like no other she's faced before - a deep-pocketed female challenger who commands the spotlight. And with two strong personalities in a mega-state like California, this race will be nasty, brutish and expensive.
Iowa Gubernatorial Primary
For all the talk of anti-establishment rage, voters so far have seemed to be receptive to the group of former governors who are seeking a return to the political arena.
One of them is former Iowa GOP Gov. Terry Branstad, a veteran of four terms in the 1980s and 1990s, who is leading businessman Bob Vander Plaats in the polls.
There's plenty for Democrats to mine in Branstad's extensive record but even so, his familiarity to Iowa voters presents a challenge for first-term Gov. Chet Culver, whose approval ratings are in the danger zone.
The GOP primary, however, isn't just about 2010. It will also provide a glimpse into 2012 presidential politics since Iowa Republicans will essentially be selecting their top party leader. The GOP presidential prospects know it, which is why Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin have lined up behind Branstad and Mike Huckabee has endorsed Vander Plaats, his campaign co-chair in 2008.
With Branstad and California's Brown poised to capture their parties' nominations, that will put three ex-governors on the ballot in November - the other is Oregon's John Kitzhaber.
Next up? Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination on July 20.
Virginia 5th District Primary
Freshman Rep. Thomas Perriello is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the nation. That much almost everybody can agree on.
The question for Republicans, though, is who is best suited to take him on. State Sen. Robert Hurt is the front-runner and the GOP establishment favorite, a proven vote getter with deep Southside Virginia roots. Tea party activists, however, have different ideas. There's a crowded field of challengers, armed with varying degrees of grass-roots support, since the various local tea party groups are backing different candidates.
At the end of the day, the race will provide an interesting insight into GOP primary politics. A Hurt win would without question represent an establishment of triumph, a victory for the political pros who rank ideological purity after electability in assessing candidates. And it would also showcase the challenge tea party activists are now facing - how the lack of a central guiding organization is hampering their efforts and splintering support.
(c) Capitol Company News, LLC 2010